實務上，商業長照保險市場規模始終無法擴大，以至於形成各種論述來解釋此一奇特的商業長照保險需求現象 (Long-Term Care Insurance Puzzle)。我們根據行為財務學的心靈帳戶理論 (mental accounting) 作為研究方法，觀察一般理性個人，當同時具備主觀死亡風險與主觀長命風險時，對於商業長照保險需求，的確會形成互相抵銷的效果，最終導致商業長照保險需求始終無法擴大的困境。研究貢獻可供壽險公司參酌，根據現代人同時受到主觀死亡風險與主觀長命的差異化影響，發展兼具這兩種風險的新型態商業長照保險，藉以擴大商業長照保險的利基。

In practice, the commercial long-term care insurance (LTCI) market has consistently failed to expand, leading to various discussions attempting to explain this unique phenomenon, known as the Long-Term Care Insurance Puzzle. Drawing on the theory of mental accounting from behavioral finance, this study examines how rational individuals simultaneously influenced by perceived mortality risk and perceived longevity risk may experience offsetting effects in their decision-making, ultimately leading to stagnant demand for LTCI. Our findings offer valuable insights for life insurance companies, suggesting that by acknowledging the dual and often conflicting impacts of perceived mortality and longevity risks, insurers can develop innovative LTCI products that integrate both risk dimensions. Such products may better align with consumers’ psychological frameworks and help unlock growth potential in the LTCI market.

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