本研究探討消費者對產品過時恐懼如何因前次購買時間之遠近而改變，同時檢視在前次購買時間與升級產品購買意願之關係中，不同類型的產品過時恐懼所扮演的中介角色，以及消費者年齡的調節作用。對341位臺灣智慧型手機使用者所做的線上問卷調查分析結果顯示，消費者前次購買時間距離現在越久，購買升級產品之意願越強。心理過時恐懼與科技過時恐懼部分中介前次購買時間對升級意願之效果。消費者年齡對心理過時恐懼影響升級意願之效果有負向調節作用。相較於憂慮經濟過時的年輕人，年長者的經濟過時恐懼越高，升級意願越強。科技過時恐懼對經濟過時恐懼有直接正向效果，而且透過心理過時恐懼對經濟過時恐懼有間接效果。

This research empirically explores how consumers’ fear of product obsolescence changes with the time elapsed since last purchase. The mediating roles of product obsolescence fears in the relationship between recency and consumers’ intention to purchase high-tech upgrades, along with the moderating role of consumer’s age on the mechanism underlying the fear-intention to upgrade causality, are also examined. Results of an online survey of 341 smartphone users in Taiwan show that recency, i.e., the time elapsed since last purchase, has both direct and indirect effects on consumers’ intention to upgrade. Fears of both psychological and technological obsolescence partially mediate the relationship between recency and intention to upgrade. The positive impact of fear of psychological obsolescence on upgrading intention is weakened by consumer’s age. Older consumers who fear economic obsolescence have stronger intention to upgrade their smartphones than younger consumers who are concerned about economic obsolescence. The three types of obsolescence fears are inter-correlated, with psychological obsolescence partially mediating the relationship between fear of technological obsolescence and economic obsolescence.

This research explores how consumer fears that are specific to product obsolescence change with the time elapsed since last purchase, and investigates the effects of different obsolescence fears on consumers’ intention to purchase high-tech upgrades. The findings may offer several managerial guidelines for managing and launching high-technology consumer products. First, in order to maintain market share, durable goods firms have to keep launching new and better products, in the form of technological improvements and style changes, faster and more frequently than their competitors do. From the marketer’s perspective, understanding consumers’ upgrading behavior is essential to product planning. Product managers of high-tech companies would like to know what fraction of consumers would upgrade to the new product and improved versions of their products, and how quickly or slowly. On the basis of the findings, marketers may help consumers manage the transitions between product generations by offering a migration path. Different fears of product obsolescence must be taken into account when choosing which path to offer. Second, marketers can segment markets by types of fears of product obsolescence. Different consumers may derive different types of benefits from the same product because of their fears of product obsolescence. Specifically, some consumers who have significant fear of economic obsolescence derive benefits from utilitarian functions that products perform; others who worry about psychological obsolescence derive social benefit, while those with fear of technological obsolescence tend to derive benefits from being the first adopters of a new product. Attention to such benefit segmentation may provide marketers with positioning bases for their products, basic appeals in promotional strategy, and specific media to reach the targeted market segments. Third, firms should vary marketing communication efforts according to consumers’ age. Our findings show that consumers suffering from the fear of psychological obsolescence readily perceive the old product to be unfashionable and have high intention to upgrade their product. Young people seem to appreciate product design that focuses on changes in preferences, trends in style or fashion, and desire for social status. Therefore, marketing communications specific to young consumers should be integrated in order to activate the fear of psychological obsolescence fear. On the other hand, older consumers with greater fear of economic obsolescence have greater intention to upgrade. Price-based promotional offers may provide those consumers with quality benefit, which refers to an ability to upgrade to higher-quality products due to the temporary price reduction of previously unaffordable products. Finally, recency has strong positive effects on consumers’ intention to upgrade, suggesting that firms should increase their marketing efforts as the time elapsed since last purchase increases.

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