本研究調查R&D(研究與發展)資本對創新產出(以藥品許可證件數衡量)的影響。本研究亦檢測是否藥品許可證會影響分析師盈餘預測的特性。再則，本研究檢測是否資訊透明度會影響藥品許可證與分析師預測特性之間的關聯性。本研究以2003-2011年之台灣上市製藥公司為研究對象，實證發現R&D資本對藥品許可證有正向的影響性。本研究進一步發現公司有較多的藥品許可證件數時，分析師的盈餘預測精確度愈差且離散度愈大。最後，本研究證實公司有較高的資訊透明度，能改善高藥品許可證件數所產生之不精確與離散的分析師預測。

This study investigates the impact of R&D (research and development) capital on innovation output, as measured by the number of drug permit licenses. We also examine whether drug permit license affect the properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts. In addition, we examine whether information transparency affect the relation between drug permit license and analysts’ forecast properties. On the basis of a sample of listed Taiwanese pharmaceutical firms from 2003 to 2011, we find that R&D capital has a positive effect on drug permit license. We further find that firms with higher number of drug permit licenses are associated with less accurate and more dispersed analysts’ earnings forecasts. Finally, we document that firms with higher level of information transparency can improve the analysts’ forecast inaccuracy and dispersion associated with higher number of drug permit licenses.

台灣自2007年通過「生技新藥產業發展條例」，提供多項研發補助及獎勵等優惠措施，使得生技產業更加蓬勃發展。由於是國內首次就個別產業提出的投資獎勵法案，生技製藥產業也是政府重點發展的明星產業，發展生技業預料將可延伸科技優勢，擴大科技運用的範疇，進而達到以範疇經濟效應帶動經濟升級的目標。 由於生技製藥公司實賴資本市場的資金挹注，以進行產品後續的研發與營運，方能促進公司的成長及壯大，故資本市場對生技產業之發展有不可忽視的重要性。另一方面，分析師一直以來扮演著公司與資本市場仲介的角色，而分析師之預測報告也是影響生技製藥公司能否順利籌資的重要因素。因此，本研究除了探討研發資本對創新產出（本文以藥品許可證件數衡量）的影響外，亦同時檢測藥品許可證與分析師預測特性之間的關聯性。據此，本文具有下列幾點政策與管理的意涵： 1. 製藥產業具有高度的不可預測性與波動性，除存有大量未認列之無形資產外（研究發展支出），其產品具有專屬性且不可移轉，故其價值較不易被估計 (Barth et al., 1998)。而無形資產所隱含的資訊不對稱，也經常造成嚴重的代理問題 (Barron et al., 2002)。本文係國內首篇以製藥產業的藥品許可證，此一獨特的無形資產資訊作為研究課題，除對生技製藥產業的研究提供增額貢獻之外，亦能提供主管機關訂定製藥產業相關治理規範的參考依據。 2. 由於企業與外部人士經常存在高度的資訊不對稱，而過去許多學者也致力於研究企業資訊揭露程度與分析師預測特性的關聯性 (Hope, 2003b; Chang et al., 2014)，然而，卻少有研究以藥品許可證所引發的潛在資訊複雜度為主題，來探討是否資訊透明度能改善藥品許可證對分析師預測任務的不利效果，本文之結果也對資訊透明度的研究提供進一步的貢獻。 3. 再則，由於製藥乃是目前台灣政府積極推動產業升級的重點產業之，然而，相較於其它產業，其不可預測與高風險的特性對於製藥公司的籌資產生很大的影響，倘若能透過管道進一步加強公司的資訊揭露（例如，法說會或邀請分析師進行訪談）將有助於資本市場的籌資。

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