過去有許多文獻探討財務預測與股價報酬間、財務預測和盈餘管理間、盈餘管理和股價報酬間之關聯性，然而並沒有研究探索三者間之關聯性。國內相關研究多著重在強制性財務預測，對於自願性財務預測之著墨甚少。據此，本研究探討於我國取消強制性財務預測制度的前後期，公司運用真實盈餘管理與會計盈餘管理的情況是否不同、投資人對於該二盈餘管理工具的市場反應是否有所差異、以及不同精明程度之投資人對自願發佈財務預測公司之盈餘管理行為的市場反應。由於強制性與自願性財務預測兩者之盈餘管理動機可能不同，進而影響盈餘公布時之股價反應，本文並探討盈餘平穩化動機和降低財務預測誤差動機在強制性財務預測制度取消前後期所扮演的角色。

Prior research documents the association between earnings forecasts and security prices/returns, between earnings forecasts and earnings management, and between earnings management and security prices/returns. To my knowledge, no study explicitly investigates the relation among the aforementioned three mechanisms. Moreover, relevant Taiwan-based research mainly focuses on mandatory releases of earnings forecasts. Accordingly, I examine whether the association between real and accounting earnings management differs, whether investors react to these earnings management activities differently, and whether investors’ sophistication affects their reaction to firms voluntarily issuing earnings forecasts, before versus after the waiver of mandatory disclosures. Given that the reporting incentives to issue mandatory versus voluntary earnings forecasts may augur differently for investors’ reaction, I also investigate the impact of the incentives to smooth earnings and reduce forecast errors in the pre- and postvoluntary earnings forecast regimes.

先前探討投資人對盈餘管理行為的市場反應之相關文獻，鮮少將不同之盈餘管理行為做合併之探討，惟實際上如果企業要進行盈餘管理，係會同時採用多種工具，因此探討多種盈餘管理工具間之聯合運用情形，將有助對企業盈餘管理獲得更全貌性之了解。本文不但將盈餘管理行為區分為真實盈餘管理(真實生產、投資決策及研發費用等支出之管理)和會計盈餘管理(符合一般公認會計準則下，採用不同會計方法之盈餘管理)，更納入財務預測制度和投資人精明程度做多層面之探討，以瞭解投資人精明程度對不同盈餘管理行為於不同財務預測制度規範下之的市場反應之影響，期使能對相關文獻提供一個不同層面的見解。本文除拓展了過去盈餘管理之市場反應的研究構思外，也的確獲得探討此類議題需區分盈餘管理工具和投資人精明程度之學術證據。 本文主要的研究結果可能之意涵為，精明投資人因為意識到在強制性財務預測制度取消後，自願發佈財務預測的公司，無論是為了降低實際盈餘和預測盈餘之間的差異，或是為了損益平穩化的需求，可能會進行盈餘管理的行為。然而真實盈餘管理已被證實能增加企業價值，還能降低代理成本，而會計盈餘管理隱含較多主觀判斷和操弄的空間，亦導致較高之權益成本，故精明投資人對於自願發佈財務預測的公司所從事之會計盈餘管理，給予較為負向之市場反應。 此研究結果除了可做為管理者評估發佈財務預測和進行不同的盈餘管理行為可能影響之參考外，亦可協助投資者判斷不同的盈餘管理行為對股價之衝擊。管理當局運用會計盈餘管理或是真實盈餘管理以達到其盈餘目標時，投資人對此的反應，可輔助管理當局對盈餘管理行為之瞭解。投資者亦宜透過瞭解公司特性以及分析其相關財務資訊，分辨是否發佈財務預測的公司其所要傳遞的訊息乃至於可能的影響，以作出正確之投資決策。本研究之探討有助於公司及投資人了解此新制對公司股價之影響，其研究結果相信對我國投資人與證券監理機構應都具投資決策與政策擬定之參考價值。

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