Sun Yat-Sen Management Review

  Journal Fullview

Sun Yat-Sen Management Review  1994/3

Vol. 2, No.1  p.79-101


Title
Evaluating the Cost Impact of Forecast Errors and Cost Structure Sensitivity Analysis under Various Product Structures for MRP
Evaluating the Cost Impact of Forecast Errors and Cost Structure Sensitivity Analysis under Various Product Structures for MRP
(633621934172812500.pdf 614KB)

Author
T.S. Lee、Everett E. Adam, Jr./Department of Decision Sciences & Managerial Economics Faculty of Business Administration The Chinese University of Hong Kong、Department of Management College of Business and Public Administration The University of Utach
T.S. Lee、Everett E. Adam, Jr./

Department of Decision Sciences & Managerial Economics Faculty of Business Administration The Chinese University of Hong Kong、Department of Management College of Business and Public Administration The University of Utah


Abstract(Chinese)

The capability of material requirements planning (MRP) as a management information system for world class manufacturing is widely recognized. This study extends previous work by increasing the complexity of product structures and conducting sensitivity analysis on cost structures. For the more complex product structures introducing forecasting error into the master production schedule by positively biasing the forecast reduces total costs. Biasing forecasts is especially effective when stockout costs dominate carrying and ordering costs in the total cost structure. The cost structure sensitiviity analysis shows that: (1) when shortage cost is reduced the cost curve related to underforecasting (forecast less than demand) shifts downward, and vice versa; and (2) when carrying cost is reduced the cost curve shifts downward. The magnitude of change related to overforecasting (forecast higher than demand) is greater than the magnitude of change related to underforecasting.

(633621934172187500.pdf 40KB)

KeyWord(Chinese)

Production and Operations Management, Material Requirements Planning, Systems Simulation


Abstract(English)

The capability of material requirements planning (MRP) as a management information system for world class manufacturing is widely recognized. This study extends previous work by increasing the complexity of product structures and conducting sensitivity analysis on cost structures. For the more complex product structures introducing forecasting error into the master production schedule by positively biasing the forecast reduces total costs. Biasing forecasts is especially effective when stockout costs dominate carrying and ordering costs in the total cost structure. The cost structure sensitiviity analysis shows that: (1) when shortage cost is reduced the cost curve related to underforecasting (forecast less than demand) shifts downward, and vice versa; and (2) when carrying cost is reduced the cost curve shifts downward. The magnitude of change related to overforecasting (forecast higher than demand) is greater than the magnitude of change related to underforecasting.

(633621934172187500.pdf 40KB)

KeyWord(English)

Production and Operations Management, Material Requirements Planning, Systems Simulation


Policy and management implications
(Available only in Chinese)


References