在國際企業領域中，有關跨國合資的研究在近年來已成為學界及實務界人士的一項熱鬥主題。儘管合資行為的研究已有相當成泉，國內探討合資不穩定性的研究則是付之闕如。本文以事件歷史分析法探討中外跨國合資事業的不穩定因素。不穩定的定義為所有權變史事件的發生。所有權結構的變更可能表示進入市場決策錯誤或反映出對環境改變的調迪。參與官司須根據自身的策略意向作適當因應措施。本研究以Cox比率危儉模型作檢定。研究的結汞顯示，對等所有權結構或主要從事行銷、配銷、售後服務功能的合資事業傾向於有較高的不穩定性。

The study of international joint ventures has recently become a popular topic among researchers and managers of multinational corporations in the field of international business. Despite a long list of research findings on joint ventures, there were few empirical studies of their instability in Taiwan. Using event history analysis a:roach, the authors analyze determinants of instability of international joint ventures between local and foreign firms. Instability is proxied by a change of ownership structure, which signifies the occurrence of an event. Changes in ownership structure mean that an incorrect decision was made at initial entry, or they may reflect a strategic adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Managers should deal with such events in line with their strategic intent. The hypothesized model is tested under a Cox proportional hazard rate specification. Our major findings provide some su:ort for the hypotheses that joint ventures tend to be unstable when partners start out with even equity shares, and when the purposes of joint ventures are to perform the functions of marketing, distribution and after sales service.

廠商之件透過跨國合資方式創造共存共榮的雙贏局面，以逐漸受到我國企業界的重視。雖然跨國合資可帶來互補互利的綜效，但是因為合資雙方在本質上往往存在既合作又競爭的矛盾關係，加上合資夥伴共享合資事業管理權時也容易發生衝突，使彼此關係隨著外在環境策略需求的改變而產生微妙的變化，最後甚至會因合資的階段性任務達成而造成終止營運、青蒜或股權改變等不穩定的結局。 本文針對中外合資事業發生股權改變的不穩定現象，探討影響合資存續期間長短的因素，本文主要發現包括：（一）對等股權容易造成合資的不穩定性；（二）若參與公司雙方的結合型態為同一產業上、下游關係的結合，則合資事業的不穩定性會降低；（三）主要從事行銷、配銷及售後服務的中外合資事業，其不穩定性較高，其次為從事製造生產者，而從事研究法展者之不穩定性最低；（四）服務業相對於製造業而言仍有較高的不穩定性。本文在管理上的涵意，在於幫助廠商了解中外合資事業不穩定性何以發生，使廠商在選擇合資型態時，事先依照其策略需要，設計適當的合資計畫，預擬因應之道。本文對管理學界的貢獻，也正可解釋過去中外合資產生劇烈變化的案例（如麥當勞與台灣寬達、寶鹼與南僑）和預測未來中外合資可能的演化。