中山管理評論

  期刊全文閱覽

中山管理評論  2017/6

第25卷第2期  p.291-336

DOI:10.6160/2017.06.01


題目
製藥公司藥品許可證、研發與分析師盈餘預測關聯性之研究
Drug Permit License, Research and Development, and Analyst’s Earnings Forecasts: A Study of Pharmaceutical Firms
(136_M5a1e6b9d5b56c_Full.pdf 1,178KB)

作者
陳光政、紀信義/逢甲大學會計系、國立中興大學會計系
Guang-Zheng Chen, Hsin-Yi Chi/

Department of Accounting, Feng Chia University、 Department of Accounting, National Chung Hsing University


摘要(中文)

本研究調查R&D(研究與發展)資本對創新產出(以藥品許可證件數衡量)的影響。本研究亦檢測是否藥品許可證會影響分析師盈餘預測的特性。再則,本研究檢測是否資訊透明度會影響藥品許可證與分析師預測特性之間的關聯性。本研究以2003-2011年之台灣上市製藥公司為研究對象,實證發現R&D資本對藥品許可證有正向的影響性。本研究進一步發現公司有較多的藥品許可證件數時,分析師的盈餘預測精確度愈差且離散度愈大。最後,本研究證實公司有較高的資訊透明度,能改善高藥品許可證件數所產生之不精確與離散的分析師預測。

(136_M5a1e6b9d5b56c_Abs.pdf(檔案不存在))

關鍵字(中文)

研發、藥品許可證、資訊透明度、分析師盈餘預測


摘要(英文)

This study investigates the impact of R&D (research and development) capital on innovation output, as measured by the number of drug permit licenses. We also examine whether drug permit license affect the properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts. In addition, we examine whether information transparency affect the relation between drug permit license and analysts’ forecast properties. On the basis of a sample of listed Taiwanese pharmaceutical firms from 2003 to 2011, we find that R&D capital has a positive effect on drug permit license. We further find that firms with higher number of drug permit licenses are associated with less accurate and more dispersed analysts’ earnings forecasts. Finally, we document that firms with higher level of information transparency can improve the analysts’ forecast inaccuracy and dispersion associated with higher number of drug permit licenses.

(136_M5a1e6b9d5b56c_Abs.pdf(檔案不存在))

關鍵字(英文)

R&D, Drug Permit License, Information Transparency, Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts


領域
Financial Accounting

政策與管理意涵

台灣自2007年通過「生技新藥產業發展條例」,提供多項研發補助及獎勵等優惠措施,使得生技產業更加蓬勃發展。由於是國內首次就個別產業提出的投資獎勵法案,生技製藥產業也是政府重點發展的明星產業,發展生技業預料將可延伸科技優勢,擴大科技運用的範疇,進而達到以範疇經濟效應帶動經濟升級的目標。 由於生技製藥公司實賴資本市場的資金挹注,以進行產品後續的研發與營運,方能促進公司的成長及壯大,故資本市場對生技產業之發展有不可忽視的重要性。另一方面,分析師一直以來扮演著公司與資本市場仲介的角色,而分析師之預測報告也是影響生技製藥公司能否順利籌資的重要因素。因此,本研究除了探討研發資本對創新產出(本文以藥品許可證件數衡量)的影響外,亦同時檢測藥品許可證與分析師預測特性之間的關聯性。據此,本文具有下列幾點政策與管理的意涵: 1. 製藥產業具有高度的不可預測性與波動性,除存有大量未認列之無形資產外(研究發展支出),其產品具有專屬性且不可移轉,故其價值較不易被估計 (Barth et al., 1998)。而無形資產所隱含的資訊不對稱,也經常造成嚴重的代理問題 (Barron et al., 2002)。本文係國內首篇以製藥產業的藥品許可證,此一獨特的無形資產資訊作為研究課題,除對生技製藥產業的研究提供增額貢獻之外,亦能提供主管機關訂定製藥產業相關治理規範的參考依據。 2. 由於企業與外部人士經常存在高度的資訊不對稱,而過去許多學者也致力於研究企業資訊揭露程度與分析師預測特性的關聯性 (Hope, 2003b; Chang et al., 2014),然而,卻少有研究以藥品許可證所引發的潛在資訊複雜度為主題,來探討是否資訊透明度能改善藥品許可證對分析師預測任務的不利效果,本文之結果也對資訊透明度的研究提供進一步的貢獻。 3. 再則,由於製藥乃是目前台灣政府積極推動產業升級的重點產業之,然而,相較於其它產業,其不可預測與高風險的特性對於製藥公司的籌資產生很大的影響,倘若能透過管道進一步加強公司的資訊揭露(例如,法說會或邀請分析師進行訪談)將有助於資本市場的籌資。


參考文獻

王曉雯、吳明政、王泰昌,2008,「企業經營型態與研發活動績效」,管理學報,25卷2期:173~193。(Wang, H. W., Wang, T. C., and Wu, M. C., 2008, “Business Types and R&D Activities Performance,” Journal of Management, Vol. 25, No. 2, 173-193.)
林美鳳、陳虹吟,2011,「投資人情緒與分析師行為之關聯性研究:以中國市場為例」,會計審計論叢,1卷2期:57~96。(Lin, M. F. and Chen, H. Y., 2011, “Investor Sentiment and Analyst Behavior: Evidence from China,” Review of Accounting and Auditing Studies, Vol. 1, No. 2, 57-96.)
許永聲、彭詠旋,2016,「企業海外籌資策略與會計穩健政策」,管理評論,35卷1期:73~95。(Hsu, Y. S. and Peng, Y. H., 2016, “Overseas Listing and Accounting Conservatism,” Management Review, Vol. 35, No. 1, 73-95.)
陳瑞斌、劉立倫、翁慈青,2006,「公司治理與分析師預測誤差/離散性關係之研究」,台灣金融財務季刊,7卷3期:53~93。(Chen, J. P., Liu, L. L., and Weng, T. C., 2006, “A Study of Association between Corporate Governance and Analyst's Forecast Error and Dispersion,” Taiwan Banking and Finance Quarterly, Vol. 7, No. 3, 53-93.)
程心瑤、蔡宜芬,2006,「分析師預測與管理當局預測對於企業評價之相對有用性:發佈時機與先後順序」,會計評論,42期:81~107。(Cheng, H. Y. and Tsai, Y. F., 2006, “The Relative Usefulness of Analyst Forecast and Management Forecasts in Business Valuation: Timing and Sequence of Forecasts,” The International Journal of Accounting Studies, Vol. 42, No. 1, 81-107.)
廖秀梅、陳依婷,2010,「資訊揭露透明度、家族控制因素與盈餘價值攸關性」,東吳會計學報,2卷2期:1~23。(Liao, H. M. and Chen, Y. T., 2010, “Corporate Disclosure Transparency, Family Control Factor and the Value Relevance of Earnings,” Soochow Journal of Accounting, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1-23.)
賴紀誠、林問一、劉亞秋,2011,「台灣股市券商分析師盈餘預測之利益衝突」,臺大管理論叢,22卷1期:357~389。(Lai, C. C., Lin, W. Y., and Liu, A. Y., “The Conflicts of Interest on Security Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Taiwan,” NTU Management Review, Vol. 22, No. 1, 357-389.)
謝存瑞、陳俞如、葉日崧,2011,「國際化與創新表現:吸收能力與區位選擇之調節效果」,管理與系統,18卷4期:607~632。(Hsieh, T. J., Chen, Y. J., and Yeh, R. S., 2011, “Internationalization and Firm Innovation Performance: The Moderating Effects of Absorptive Capacity and Location Choice,” Journal of Management and System, Vol. 18, No. 4, 607-632.)
蘇友珊、吳豐祥,2015,「台灣生技公司如何運用開放式創新開發藥物?」,中山管理評論,23卷1期:335~376。(Su, Y. S. and Wu, F. S., 2015, “How Do Taiwanese Biotechnology Companies Leverage Open Innovation to Develop New Drug,” Sun Yat-Sen Management Review, Vol. 23, No. 1, 335-376.)
Ali, A., Klasa, S., and Yeung, E., 2005, “Industry Concentration, Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Bid-Ask Spread.” Working Paper, The University of Texas at Dallas.
Barker, V. L. and Mueller, G. C., 2002, “CEO Characteristics and Firm R&D Spending,” Management Science, Vol. 48, No. 6, 782-801.
Barron, O. E., Byard, D., Kile, C., and Riedl, E. J., 2002, “High-Technology Intangibles and Analysts’ Forecasts,” Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 40, No. 2, 289-312.
Barron, O. E., Kyle, C. O., and O’ Keefe, T. B., 1999, “MD&A Quality as Measured by the SEC and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts,” Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 16, No. 1, 75-109.
Barth, M. E. and Hutton, A. P., 2004, “Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions and the Pricing of Accruals,” Review of Accounting Studies, Vol. 9, No. 1, 59-96.
Barth, M. E., Beaver, W. H., and Landsman, W. R., 1998, “Relative Valuation Role of Equity Book Value and Net Income as a Function of Financial Health,” Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 25, No. 1, 1-34.
Barth, M. E., Kasznik, R., and McNichols, M. F., 2001, “Analyst Coverage and Intangible Assets,” Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 39, No. 1, 1-34.
Basu, S. and Waymire, G., 2008, “Has the Importance of Intangibles Really Grown? And if so, Why,” Accounting and Business Research, Vol. 38, No. 3, 171-190.
Beaver, W. H., Landsman, W. R., and Owens, E. L., 2012, “Asymmetry in Earnings Timeliness and Persistence: A Simultaneous Equations Approach,” Review of Accounting Studies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 781-806.
Behn, B. K., Choi, J. H., and Kang, T., 2008, “Audit Quality and Properties of Analyst Earnings Forecasts,” The Accounting Review, Vol. 83, No. 2, 327-349.
Bhushan, R., 1989, “Firm Characteristics and Analysts Following,” Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 11, No. 2, 255-274.
Bradshaw, M. T., Richardson, S. A., and Sloan, R. G., 2006, “The Relation Between Corporate Financing Activities, Analysts’ Forecasts and Stock Returns,” Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 42, No. 1, 53-85.
Brown, J. R., Fazzari, S. M., and Petersen, B. C., 2009, “Financing Innovation and Growth: Cash Flow, External Equity and the 1990s R&D Boom,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 64, No. 1, 151-185.
Cardinal, L. B. and Hatfield, D. E., 2000, “Internal Knowledge Generation: The Research Laboratory and Innovative Productivity in the Pharmaceutical Industry,” Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, Vol. 17, No. 3, 247-271.
Chang, H. H., Chang, R. D., and Fang, C. J., 2014, “The Effects of Information Transparency on Analysts’ Forecasts: Evidence from the Information Disclosure and Transparency Ratings System in Taiwan,” Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Vol. 20, No. 4, 405-428.
Clement, M. B. and Tse, S. Y., 2005, “Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 60, No. 1, 307-341.
Coffee, J., 2006, Gatekeepers-the Professions and Corporate Governance, 1st, Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Cohen, W. M. and Levinthal, D. A., 1989, “Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D-Implications for the Analysis of R&D Investment,” The Economic Journal, Vol. 99, No. 397, 569-596.
Das, S., Levine, C. B., and Sivaramakrishnan, K., 1998, “Earnings Predictability and Bias in Analysts’ Earnings Forecast,” The Accounting Review, Vol. 73, No. 2, 277‐294.
Daum, J. H., 2003, Intangible Assets and Value Creation, 1st, New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Dedman, E., Lin, S. W. J., Prakash, A. J., and Chang, C. H., 2008, “Voluntary Disclosure and its Impact on Share Prices: Evidence from the UK Biotechnology Sector,” Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Vol. 27, No. 3, 195-216.
Dugar, A. and Nathan, S., 1995, “The Effect of Investment Banking Relationships on Financial Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Investment Recommendations,” Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 12, No. 1, 131-160.
Duru, A. and Reeb, D. M., 2002, “International Diversification and Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy and Bias,” The Accounting Review, Vol. 77, No. 2, 415-433.
Graham, B. and Dodd, D., 2008, Security Analysis, 6th, New York: McGraw Hill.
Greenhalgh, C. and Longland, M., 2005, “Running to Stand Still?-The Value of R&D, Patents and Trade Marks in Innovating Manufacturing Firms,” International Journal of the Economics of Business, Vol. 12, No. 3, 307-328.
Griliches, Z., 1986, “Productivity, R&D, and Basic Research at the Firm Level in the 1970s,” American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 1, 141-154.
Gu, F. and Li, J. Q., 2010, “The Value-Relevance of Advertising: Evidence from Pharmaceutical Industry,” Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Vol. 25, No. 1, 85-120.
Gu, F. and Wang, W., 2005, “Intangible Assets, Information Complexity, and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts,” Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 32, No. 9-10, 1673-1702.
Gu, F., 2005, “Innovation, Future Earnings, and Market Efficiency,” Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Vol. 20, No. 4, 385-418.
Gu, Z. and Chen, T., 2004, “Analysts' Treatment of Nonrecurring Items in Street Earnings,” Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 38, No. 1, 129-170.
Hall, B. H. and Ziedonis, R. H., 2001, “The Patent Paradox Revisited: An Empirical Study of Patenting in the U.S. Semiconductor Industry, 1979-1995,” The RAND Journal of Economics, Vol. 32, No. 1, 101-128.
Hall, B. H., 1990, “The Manufacturing Sector Master File: 1959-1987.” NBER Working Paper, National Burean of Economic Recearch.
Hall, B. J., Griliches, Z., and Hausman, J. A., 1986, “Patents and R and D: Is There a Lag,” International Economic Review, Vol. 27, No. 2, 265-283.
Hall, B. H. and Oriani, R., 2006, “Does the Market Value R&D Investment by European Firms? Evidence from a Panel of Manufacturing Firms in France, Germany, and Italy,” International Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol. 24, No. 5, 971-993.
Hall, L. A. and Sharmistha, B. S., 2002, “A Study of R&D, Innovation, and Business Performance in the Canadian Biotechnology Industry,” Technovation, Vol. 22, No. 4, 231-244.
Hansen, G. S. and Hill, C. W. L., 1991, “Are Institutional Investors Myopic? A Time-Series Study of Four Technology-Driven Industries,” Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 12, No. 1, 1-16.
Healy, P. and Palepu, K., 2001, “Information Asymmetry, Corporate Disclosure, and the Capital Markets: A Review of the Voluntary Disclosure Literature,” Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 31, No. 1, 405‐440.
Heckman, J. J., 1979, “Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error,” Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 1, 153-162.
Helfat, C. E. and Peteraf, M. A., 2003, “The Dynamic Resource-Based View: Capability Lifecycles Dynamic Capabilities Deconstructed Dynamic Capabilities Deconstructed Dynamic Capabilities Deconstructed,” Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 24, No. 10, 997-1010.
Herrmann, D. and Thomas, W. B., 2005, “Rounding of Analyst Forecasts,” The Accounting Review, Vol. 80, No. 3, 805-823.
Hill, C. W. L. and Snell, S. A., 1989, “Effects of Ownership Structure and Control on Corporate Productivity,” Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 32, No. 1, 25-46.
Hirschey, M., Richardson, V. J., and Scholz, S., 2001, “Value Relevance of Nonfinancial Information: The Case of Patent Data,” Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Vol. 17, No. 3, 223-235.
Hong, H. and Kubik, J. D., 2003, “Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 58, No. 1, 313-351.
Hong, H., Kubik, J. D., and Solomon, D., 2000, “Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts,” Rand Journal of Economics, Vol. 31, No. 1, 121-144.
Hope, O. K., 2003a, “Accounting Policy Disclosures and Analysts’ Forecast,” Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 20, No. 2, 295-321.
Hope, O. K., 2003b, “Analyst Following and the Influence of Disclosure Components, IPOs and Ownership Concentration,” Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 10, No. 2, 117-141.
Imhoff, E. A. and Lobo, G. J., 1992, “The Effect of Ex Ante Earnings Uncertainty on Earnings Response Coefficients,” The Accounting Review, Vol. 67, No. 2, 427-439.
Jackson, A. R., 2005, “Trade Generation, Reputation and Sell‐Side Analysts,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 60, No. 2, 673-717.
Jacob, J., Lys, T., and Neal, M., 1999, “Expertise in Forecasting Performance of Security Analysts,” Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 28, No. 1, 27-50.
Jensen, E. J., 1987, “Research Expenditures and the Discovery of New Drugs,” Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 36, No. 1, 83-95.
Kothari, S. P., Laguerre, T. E., and Leone, A. J., 2002, “Capitalization versus Expensing: Evidence on the Uncertainty of Future Earnings from Capital Expenditures versus R&D Outlays,” Review of Accounting Studies, Vol. 7, No. 4, 355-382.
Kross, W., Ro, B., and Schroeder, D., 1990, “Earnings Expectations: The Analysts’ Information Advantage,” The Accounting Review, Vol. 65, No. 2, 461-476.
Kuemmerle, W., 1998, “Optimal Scale for Research and Development in Foreign Environments: An Investigation Into Size and Performance of Research and Development Laboratories Abroad,” Research Policy, Vol. 27, No. 2, 111‐126.
Kwon, S. S., 2002, “Financial Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy and Dispersion: High-Tech Versus and Low-Tech Stocks,” Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Vol. 19, No. 1, 65-91.
Lang, M. H. and Lundholm, R. J., 1996, “Corporate Disclosure Policy and Analyst Behavior,” The Accounting Review, Vol. 71, No. 4, 467-492.
Langowitz, N. S. and Graves, S. B., 1992, “Innovative Productivity in Pharmaceutical Firms,” Research Technology Management, Vol. 35, No. 2, 39-52.
Lev, B., 2001, Intangibles: Management, Measurement, and Reporting, 1st, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
Lewin, A. Y. and Massini, S., 2003, “Knowledge Creation and Organizational Capabilities of Innovating and Imitating Firms” in Tsoukas, H. and Mylonopoulos, N. (eds.), Organizations as Knowledge Systems, First Edition, Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave, 1-26.
Lim, T., 2001, “Rationally and Analysts’ Forecast Bias,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 56, No. 1, 369-385.
McMillan, C. S., Mauri, A., and Hamilton, R. D., 2003, “The Impact of Publishing and Patenting Activities on New Product Development and Firm Performance: The Case of the US Pharmaceutical Industry,” International Journal of Innovation Management, Vol. 7, No. 2, 213-221.
McTague, R. W., 2001, “Unger Says Securities Firms Complied Poorly with Rules Relating to Analysts’ Investments,” Securities Regulation and Law, Vol. 33, No. 31, 1136-1138.
Mikhail, M. B., Walther, B. R., and Willis, R. H., 1999, “Does Forecast Accuracy Matter to Security Analysts,” The Accounting Review, Vol. 74, No. 2, 185‐200.
Palepu, K., 1985. “Diversification Strategy, Profit Performance and the Entropy Measure,” Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 6, No. 3, 239-255.
Pandit, S., Wasley, C. E., and Zach, T., 2011, “The Effect of Research and Development (R&D) Inputs and Outputs on the Relation between the Uncertainty of Future Operating Performance and R&D Expenditures,” Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Vol. 26, No. 1, 121-144.
Payne, J. L. and Robb, S. W. G., 2000, “Earnings Management: The Effect of Ex Ante Earnings Uncertainty,” Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Vol. 15, No. 4, 371-392.
Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., and Johnson, E. J., 1988, “Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, Vol. 14, No. 3, 534-552.
Peeters, C. and van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, B., 2006, “Innovation Strategy and the Patenting Behavior of Firms,” Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Vol. 16, No. 1-2, 109-135.
Penner-Hahn, J. and Shaver, J. M., 2005, “Does International Research and Development Increase Patent Output? An Analysis of Japanese Pharmaceutical Firms,” Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 26, No. 2, 121-140.
Plumlee, M. A., 2003, “The Effect of Information Complexity on Analysts’ Use of that Information,” The Accounting Review, Vol. 78, No. 1, 275‐296.
Rosenberg, N., 1990, “Why Do Firms Do Basic Research (With Their Own Money),” Research Policy, Vol. 19, No. 2, 165-174.
Schipper, K., 1991, “Analysts’ Forecasts,” Accounting Horizons, Vol. 5, No. 4, 105-121.
Upadhyay, A. and Sriram, R., 2011, “Board Size, Corporate Information Environment and Cost of Capital,” Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Vol. 38, No. 9-10, 1238-1261.
Vanstraelen, A., Zarzeski, M. T., and Robb, S. W. G., 2003, “Corporate Nonfinancial Disclosure Practices and Financial Analyst Forecast Ability Across Three European Countries,” Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, Vol. 14, No. 3, 249-278.
Wooldridge, J. M., 2010, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, 2nd, New York: MIT Press.
Wyatt, A., 2005, “Accounting Recognition of Intangible Assets: Theory and Evidence on Economic Determinants,” The Accounting Review, Vol. 80, No. 3, 967-1003.
Xie, Y., Zhang, Y., and Zhou, J., 2012, “National Level, City Level Auditor Industry Specialization and Analyst Forecast,” International Journal of Auditing, Vol. 16, No. 3, 248-267.
Yang, Y. W., 2007, “The Value-Relevance of Nonfinancial Information: The Biotechnology Industry,” Advances in Accounting, Vol. 23, No. 1, 287-314.
Yu, M., 2010, “Analyst Forecasts Properties, Analyst Following and Governance Disclosure Disclosures: A Global Perspective,” Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Vol. 19, No. 1, 1-15.